When Dakota Joshua signed with the Vancouver Canucks back in 2022, there was a lot to like about him. He had size, speed, a little bit of skill, and great two-way habits.
What Joshua didn’t have was a lot of NHL experience. Already 26 when he joined the Canucks, Joshua had played just 42 NHL games in parts of two seasons with the St. Louis Blues. It was an open question of how much further Joshua could take his game and whether he could even be an everyday NHLer.
In his two seasons with the Canucks, however, Joshua has thoroughly answered that question.
Dakota Joshua has become a key player for the Canucks
Joshua was a solid depth player for the Canucks last season, winning over fans with both his physical play and occasional scoring, earning him the Fred J. Hume Unsung Hero Award at the end of the season. But what tantalized the most about his play last season were the hints at something more.
When Rick Tocchet joined the Canucks as head coach, he started giving Joshua opportunities further up the lineup, looking to find a north-south player who could complement the more east-west skill of his stars. Tocchet believed that, with some hard work and training, Joshua could be a top-six forward.
“I just think, around the net, there's some tricks of the trade to learn how to position yourself to get those goals,” said Tocchet. “Being a wall guy, he's getting even better at that. If he can get to that level, you can play him with great players, because the great players want to play with north-south type of players that will get you the puck and go retrieve the puck. So, there is a spot there, and if he can grab it, we'll see.”
This season, Joshua has elevated his game. He has 15 goals and 28 points in 55 games, which doesn’t jump off the page but is a 22-goal pace over a full 82-game season. He’s been a go-to penalty killer and part of one of the best third lines in hockey with Conor Garland and Teddy Blueger.
“He is a very, very important piece, not just with scoring,” said Garland. “I mean, he’s got 15 goals but it’s a physical presence, he’s a good PK guy, he’s a good wall guy. He makes timely plays…We have to play in crunch time a lot and he makes some big plays. He’s got that personality to make plays in those types of situations.”
Joshua’s underlying analytics at 5-on-5 — a weak spot last season alongside weaker linemates — have been exemplary thanks to his chemistry with Garland. Joshua has a 53.3% corsi, a 57.2% expected goals, and a +14 goal differential at 5-on-5. Among Canucks forwards, only Pius Suter has been on the ice for a lower rate of goals against than Joshua.
All of that is to say, Joshua has become a crucial part of the Canucks’ lineup. But he’s also something else: a pending unrestricted free agent.
Should Joshua get paid like a top-six forward?
Joshua is coming off a two-year contract with an average annual value of just $825,000. Of the Canucks forwards who have appeared in at least one game this season, only Arshdeep Bains and Phil Di Giuseppe have a lower cap hit than Joshua.
That’s not going to be the case next season, as Joshua is due a substantial raise. The question is, just how substantial should that raise be? Should Joshua be paid like a top-six forward or a bottom-six forward or somewhere in between?
Consider this: Teddy Blueger and Pius Suter have been exceptionally useful for the Canucks, playing multiple roles with the Canucks throughout the season. In fact, both players are right behind Joshua in scoring — 26 and 27 points to Joshua’s 28 — albeit in five more games played, while also playing significant roles on special teams.
Blueger got a one-year deal with a $1.9 million cap hit from the Canucks. Suter signed for two years at a $1.6 million cap hit. How much more is Joshua worth than Blueger and Suter?
If you ask his agent, at least, quite a bit more.
“If the Canucks thought they were getting Joshua on the twos, it’s not going to happen,” said Rick Dhaliwal, the man with the most extensive rolodex of player agents in Vancouver. “Joshua has given his agent, Rich Evans, a ton of ammunition for contract talks. He will get over $3 million, folks, on July 1…Everyone is looking for a guy with that size, soft hands, kills penalties, sticks up for teammates — what’s there not to like?”
That’s the challenge for Joshua’s next contract: Joshua does a lot of things for the Canucks, so who are his comparable players?
The challenge of finding comparable players to Joshua
While forwards who can score 15-20 goals in the NHL aren’t exactly a dime-a-dozen, they’re also not all that uncommon: 177 forwards have scored at least 15 goals so far this season and players who have produced similarly to Joshua are paid anywhere from league minimum to $8.5 million per year — hello there, Pierre-Luc Dubois.
But finding a forward who not only scores 15-20 goals but also racks up over 200 hits and plays nearly two minutes per game on the penalty kill? That’s a bit tougher.
When AFP Analytics ran their contract projections back in January, they came back with a projection for Joshua of a three-year deal with a cap hit of approximately $3 million. Their analysis tagged five comparable players for Joshua who signed new contracts as UFAs: 2014-15 Matt Beleskey, 2018-19 Brett Connolly, 2017-18 Antoine Roussel, 2021-22 Alexander Barabanov, and 2015-16 Chris Stewart.
It’s understandable where these comparable players come from. They’re each at a similar age to Joshua and produced at a similar rate in their careers. When you look at the season before they signed their contracts, however, the differences jump out. None of those comparable players play as much on the penalty kill as Joshua and none of them hit as much as Joshua.
With that in mind, how much stock should we place in that kind of projection? Three years at $3 million per year seems reasonable enough but is it missing something?
But here’s a comparable player that might make more sense, particularly considering we’re talking about the Jim Rutherford-helmed Canucks: Brandon Tanev.
Comparing Brandon Tanev to Dakota Joshua
Heading into his contract year in 2018-19 with the Winnipeg Jets, Tanev had limited NHL experience, much like Joshua.
Tanev had played 115 NHL games; Joshua had played 121. Tanev had 10 career goals and 22 career points; Joshua had 15 career goals and 32 career points.
In the 2018-19 season, however, Tanev found a role on the Jets and became a solid contributor, putting up 14 goals and 29 points while playing significant minutes on the penalty kill and racking up a ton of hits. In fact, Tanev and Joshua’s numbers in their respective contract years are incredibly similar — it’s just that Joshua put up his points in fewer games.
Why does this matter?
Because after Tanev’s 2018-19 season, Jim Rutherford gave him a shocking six-year, $21 million contract with a cap hit of $3.5 million to play for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The deal caught everyone off-guard and was widely criticized at the time but Penguins fans grew to appreciate his high-energy, gritty two-way game and his ability to shut down top opponents.
While Tanev and Joshua are not the same player, by any means — Joshua has more offensive upside while Tanev is better defensively — you still have to wonder if Rutherford and his protegé, Patrik Allvin, see Joshua as their Tanev: a crucial cog in the middle of the lineup. With that in mind, might we see a larger contract for Joshua than anyone expects?
One difference is that the Canucks don’t necessarily have to lure Joshua away from other teams, as they have an exclusive negotiating window ahead of July 1. Joshua knows where he fits with the Canucks and might be willing to take a hometown discount to stay in Vancouver.
That’s good, because Tanev’s deal was 4.29% of the salary cap back in 2019. With the salary cap projected to increase to $87.7 million next season, that percentage would mean a cap hit of around $3.76 million for Joshua.
If the Canucks are willing to offer Joshua a long-term deal like Tanev’s, you’d have to hope the cap hit would come down significantly from that number. Of course, if Joshua can be a legitimate top-six forward in the years to come, a $3.76 million cap hit would be a bargain.
