U.S. military recruitment has made a comeback following a downturn caused primarily by the COVID-19 pandemic, low unemployment and stiff competition from the private sector.
Posts circulating widely on social media give President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth credit for this increase, a claim that has been pushed by the president and others in his administration.
But Defense Department data shows the uptick began well before Trump's reelection in November and experts point to actions taken by the military during the Biden administration as key reasons for the increase.
Here's a look at the facts.
CLAIM: President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are causing military recruitment numbers to skyrocket.
THE FACTS: This is an overstatement and is missing context. Recruitment numbers for all military branches have been on the rise for the last few years, according to Defense Department data. Experts cite factors such as improving recruitment strategies, increased bonuses and new prep courses that predated the 2024 presidential election as factors in the change, although they acknowledge Trump’s election could have also played a role.
“There may be some American teenagers or their parents, more likely, who were more comfortable joining the military in a Republican administration than a Democratic administration,” said Katherine Kuzminski, director of studies at the independent Washington think tank Center for a New American Security and an expert on military recruitment. “But I don’t think that alone explains why we’ve seen an increase lately.”
Military enlistment was 12.5% higher in fiscal year 2024, which ran from Oct. 1, 2023 to Sept. 30, 2024, than in fiscal year 2023. There were 225,000 new recruits in the former and 200,000 in the latter, said Katie Helland, who oversees recruitment policies and programs as the Defense Department's director of Military Accession Policy, at a media roundtable in October. Those totals include both active and reserve troops in all five military branches, as well as about 4,800 Navy recruits from fiscal year 2024 who signed contracts, but could not be shipped out due to basic training limitations.
And the recruiting numbers for the current fiscal year 2025, which started the month before Trump's election, have continued to increase.
In an interview with The Associated Press in January, then-Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said the Army is on pace to bring in 61,000 young people by the end of the fiscal year in September and will have more than 20,000 additional young people signed up in the delayed entry program for 2026. It will be the Army's second straight year of meeting its enlistment goals.
“What’s really remarkable is the first quarter contracts that we have signed are the highest rate in the last 10 years,” Wormuth said. “We are going like gangbusters, which is terrific.”
Some on social media have given Trump and Hegseth sole credit for the improving numbers, this week citing a Fox News graphic that aired Tuesday during a “Fox & Friends” interview with Hegseth. The graphic compared cumulative recruitment numbers for the first two months of the current fiscal year with those of the first five months.
“Holy smokes. Military recruitment is THROUGH THE ROOF,” reads one X post sharing the Fox graphic. “Absolutely smashing every goal. This is what happens when you have strong leadership.”
Kuzminski noted there's no data to back up whether Trump's election had been a factor in the most recent increase in recruiting numbers.
“We can’t rule out that for some people it was a factor, but the real way to get around that would be to actually do more qualitative surveys or interviews like," she said.
The Department of Defense did not respond to a request for comment beyond providing numbers around recruitment.
Its most recent Joint Advertising Market Research Survey, published in January, does not list politics among the top reasons for either joining or not joining the military.
The survey polled youth ages 16-21. Fifty-three percent of respondents listed “pay/money” in response to the question, “If you were to consider joining the U.S. Military, what would be the main reason(s)?"
Seventy-two percent chose “possibility of physical injury/death” in response to the question, “What would be the main reason(s) why you would NOT consider joining the U.S. Military?”
Prior to the recent uptick in recruits, military services struggled to overcome severe restrictions on in-person recruiting mandated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the low unemployment rate and stiff competition from private companies able to pay more and provide similar or better benefits.
Kuzminski said modernizing recruitment efforts was a major factor in improving the numbers. Instead of relying on recruiting centers in strip malls, for example, she said there has been a push over the last 20 years to “think about capturing American youth where they exist online and not just in person.”
Another barrier to recruitment has been the number of potential recruits who are qualified for enlistment. According to the most recent Defense Department data available, 77% of youth 17 to 24 years old do not qualify for military service without some type of waiver for issues such as weight, drug abuse or mental health.
Military officials and experts have pointed to prep courses intended to help potential recruits meet academic and physical military standards as helping to solve this issue. The Army launched its Future Soldier Preparatory Course in August 2022. The Navy began its own program, the Future Sailor Preparatory Course, in April 2023.
Enticements, such as bonuses for recruiters who exceed their baseline enlistment requirement and promotions for young enlisted soldiers who successfully bring in recruits, also play a role.
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ defense and security department, said, “In part, I think you’re seeing the results of money that the Biden administration put in, and Congress too, the incentives are greater.”
But, he added, “I think that, to be honest, Hegseth, I think he has excited a certain part of the American society.”
He noted that, ultimately, there isn't enough data yet to know the impact Trump and Hegseth have had on military recruitment.
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Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.
Melissa Goldin, The Associated Press
